Small Craft Advisory 871, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1230 PM AKST SAT NOV 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE AK PENINSULA IN BOTH POSITION AND INTENSITY.
EXPECTING ELONGATED LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY
MIDDAY. AFTER LATE SUNDAY MORNING MODELS START TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTION
FOR A NEW GULF OF ALASKA LOW.  GFS IS DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN
NAM...LEANING TOWARDS GFS AS IT APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH EAST SIDE
OF TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY. WILL
SEE STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  STRONG WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND ON THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHWEST...IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS EXPECT TO START OFF WITH SNOW BUT
MIXING WITH RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. SHOULD BE WARMING FROM KING SALMON WESTWARD.
BETHEL ZONE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING BUT
BETHEL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SOME MODERATE
TO STRONG EAST TO NORTH WINDS SO VIZ WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS WITH
BLOWING SNOW. AWAY FROM THE COAST COULD HAVE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS...WILL DEPEND ON MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE SNOW.

KODIAK...SNOW TURNING TO RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS THIS
EVENING BUT SNOW SHOULD BE WET SO NOT EXPECTING ANY BLIZZARD.
FRONT SHOULD PASS OVER FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WITH GOOD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPECTED CONTINUED RAIN AND SNOW OVER NIGHT
WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL...FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG GAP AND MOUNTAIN WINDS AS PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG
THE COAST.  EXPECTING STRONG WINDS IN PORTAGE AREA AND UPPER
HILLSIDE. WITH STRONG DOWN INLET FLOW THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
EXPECTING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO BE CONFINED TO UPPER AND MID
HILLSIDE...MIGHT SEE SOME MODERATE GUSTS ON LOWER HILLSIDE MONDAY
MORNING.  GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW IN UPPER AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.
SNOW TURNING TO RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS NOTED THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT.
NEVERTHELESS THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LOW IN THE GULF ON TUESDAY
WITH STRONG EAST FLOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW ALONG
THE COAST TUESDAY.  MODELS INDICATING DOWNSLOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES AND STORMS EVERYWHERE EAST OF 170W.
FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTING ANY PROBLEMS TODAY.

JOHNANIMAL NOV 08