Small Craft Advisory 866, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST THU NOV 6 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL
LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA IS HOLDING TOUGH. THE
MAIN JET STREAM REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKAN AOR. AN 85KT BRANCH
OF THE JET IS ROTATING THROUGH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
SOUTH OF KODIAK AND IS HELPING TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...AS MENTIONED A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE ALASKA COASTLINE. THE SURFACE LOW THAT
HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE WESTERN GULF IS FINALLY
DISSIPATING NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. RESIDUAL SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF BUT WILL BE
DECREASING TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE DEVELOPING LOW IN
THE GULF WILL HEAD NORTH TOWARD YAKUTAT AND MAKE LANDFALL THURSDAY
NIGHT. UNLIKE THE GFS...BELIEVE THE LOW WILL JOG WEST BEFORE LANDFALL
AS IT RECURVES A BIT INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. MODELS HAVE ALSO KEYED
IN ON SOME DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW NEAR SEWARD THAT WILL LINGER IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY FUEL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...ONE LAST DAY OF SIMILAR WEATHER TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. STARTING TONIGHT THINGS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE
FIRST IN A POTENTIAL SERIES OF LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE GULF. GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...RESURRECTION BAY...AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY IN THE COPPER RIVER DELTA BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER AGAIN TODAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS EAST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
SHEMYA AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IF THIS PATTERN CAN HOLD
IT LOOKS LIKE A TRAIN OF LOWS WILL POSSIBLY BE MARCHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY THE
MAIN BRANCH OF THE JET MAY BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE GULF WHICH WILL ADD
ADDITIONAL ENERGY TO ANY LOWS THAT FORM IN THE AREA. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE TIMING THESE LOWS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN. THE GFS HAS
BEEN TRYING TO MOVE THESE LOWS THROUGH FASTER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL
WHICH CAN LIKELY BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE KNOWN GFS TREND OF WANTING TO
BREAK DOWN BLOCKING RIDGES INTO ZONAL FLOW PREMATURELY. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL AT THIS TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AMD NOV 08