Small Craft Advisory 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED OCT 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...OVERALL THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL FROM THE 12Z
RUN WITH THE GFS BEING USED OVERALL. THE ONE DEPARTURE FROM THIS IS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST NEAR SEWARD. THERE IS A SMALL LOW THAT
DEVELOPED IN THE OUTFLOW WINDS THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND WAS ALSO PICKED UP BY THE 18Z NAM. DUE TO THIS THE NAM
CAN BE USED FOR THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREAS IN THE SHORT TERM.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS OVER
THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS PUSHED EASTWARD
BY A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE JET STREAM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
AND A WEAKENING LOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE BRISTOL BAY LOW WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY OF CHIGNIK LATE TONIGHT.

A RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRI AS A LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA BY FRIDAY. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT
AND THEN CROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE BRISTOL BAY AREA IS RECEIVING THE MOST
COMPLEX WEATHER TODAY. THERE ARE AREAS OF RAIN TO THE EAST AND SNOW
TO THE WEST WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR DILLINGHAM.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS ALSO RECEIVING RAIN TODAY. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN RAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND ZERO DEGREES C IN THAT AREA.
THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING RAINFALL INTO THAT AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TONIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK LOW SOUTH OF SEWARD.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THAT AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 08