Small Craft Advisory 76, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST MON JAN 28 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL MAINLAND
AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING PUSH OVER THE
WESTERN ALASKA MAINLAND. A LARGE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BERING IS KEEPING THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHOWERY
FLOW. THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW IS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND
STRETCHING INTO THE GULF WHERE A NEW LOW IS FORMING JUST TO THE EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION FROM THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KEEPING ITS USUAL DOWNSLOPE PATTERN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NAM HAVING THE BEST POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MAKING
ITS WAY NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. HAVE USED THE LATEST RUN
OF THE GFS AS GUIDANCE AS IT HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND
FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS ECMWF GUIDANCE THAT HAD BEEN USED AS A BASIS
THE LAST FEW PACKAGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LOOK FOR MOST OF THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
BE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY. THE FRONT HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR KODIAK WHICH WILL KEEP EVERYTHING AS
SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BECOME A CLOSED OFF
LOW OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AND HELP STEER THE SURFACE LOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST THEREBY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING THE FRONTAL BAND BY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY GAP WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
TODAY...EXCEPT OVER KODIAK IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THIS RIDGING
WILL CLEAR OUT SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...THE FRONT...NOW OVER THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP EAST. AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING
TO GIVE ONE LAST PUSH FOR HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORIES UP FOR THESE TWO ZONES FOR TODAY. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN KEEPING THE REGION MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BERING/ALEUTIANS...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS LATE TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AND A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
RAIN WILL FIRST AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY COLD ENOUGH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TUESDAY. THEREFORE A
BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT SUBSEQUENT
MODELS RUNS TO MAKE SURE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT AS
THIS WOULD KEEP VISIBILITIES TOO HIGH FOR A WARNING. OTHERWISE...SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 181
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR JAN 08