Small Craft Advisory 705, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON SEP 15 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MID TO LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTION HAVE BECOME PROBLEMATIC AS THE
LONGER RANGE MODELS FAR IN AND OUT OF FAVOR OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
THE CURRENT SET OF MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
BERING SEA, THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT
POINT THE MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGE SO RADICALLY, CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST ARE FAIRLY LOW, THOUGH THE ECMWF STILL HAS A BETTER SOLUTION
THAN THE GFS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE IN-BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS AT THE
MOMENT WITH A OLD STORM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DISSIPATING AND A
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE STATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC.

AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL
MAINLAND THOUGH A COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS STARTING
TO PUSH IT EAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOWER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS THROUGH
THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO
THE GULF TUESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND KENAI PENINSULA WITH LESSER AMOUNT FALLING OVER THE
REST OF SOUTNCENTRAL MAINLAND. RAIN WILL BECOME SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF AND OUTER KODIAK ISLAND WATERS TONIGHT.

A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK
ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE CONFLICTING MODEL
SOLUTION THOUGH THE ECWMF IS STILL PREFERRED BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE
STORM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120, 130, 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM SEP 08