Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2008

Small Craft Advisory 641, NWS Anchorage, AK

August 25, 2008

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Aug 25, 2008, 4:00 PM AKDT. It was in force for 7 days.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 25, 2008, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2008, 4:00 AM AKDT
In force
7 days
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 25, 1:00 PM AKDT, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 25, 1:00 PM AKDT, 3 hours before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AKDT MON AUG 25 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST...THEN THE 12Z GFS
BEGINS TO VEER AWAY FROM THE CONSENSUS BY ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTERNOON
PACKAGE FAVORS THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF. THIS LEADS TO SMALL DETAIL
CHANGES THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN KEEPING WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE REMAINDER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON SPILLING CLOUDS AND RAIN
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FROM THE NORTHEAST. A COUPLE OF FAST
MOVING SYSTEMS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...ONE ENTERING THE WESTERN
GULF FROM THE WEST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE OTHER
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. A DEEP ARCTIC LOW OVER
NORTHEAST SIBERIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH A COLD FRONT NEARING
BETHEL AND SAINT PAUL ISLAND. A RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS ALASKA FROM
KUSKOKWIM BAY TO BARTER ISLAND KEEPING THE VARIOUS LOWS FROM MOVING
TOO FAR INTO ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF THE LOWS
MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE PATTERN OF
VARIABLE CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE YUKON LOW WILL KEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION. THE SIBERIAN LOW WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
CYCLONIC...BUT THE BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR WILL BE
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LATER IN THE WEEK THE SIBERIAN LOW WILL STALL AND AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD FRONT/TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THIS
IS WHEN MODEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO BE FELT. THE GFS LOOKS TO SHOVE
THE ALASKAN RIDGE EASTWARD INTO CANADA BY LATE FRIDAY AND THE ECMWF
WANTS TO KEEP IT IN ALASKA A COUPLE OF DAYS LONGER. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMFW THAN GFS. BOTTOM LINE IS NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG AUG 08

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 25, 11:15 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC5 hr
Aug 26, 4:00 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2008Every small craft advisory in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.