Small Craft Advisory 614, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
410 AM AKDT MON AUG 11 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS ON
THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER THE LONG TERM IS A
DIFFERENT STORY. CONSISTENCY IS POOR AT BEST. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS RATHER THAN THE LATEST 0Z AS THIS ONE WANTS
A FULL REGIME CHANGE WITH A LOW FORMING IN THE GULF. STUCK WITH JUST
A FRONT FOR NOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AK CONTINUES TO SWING SOME
SHOWERS DOWN TO SOUTHCENTRAL EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTH
BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS. THE MAIN LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND RAIN. STRATUS AND FOG ARE
STILL FACTORS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO BRISTOL BAY.

KASATOCHI AND OKMOK VOLCANOS ARE STILL ACTIVE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN PARTS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND DISSIPATES. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER THAT
WITH MORE RAIN MOVING BACK IN ON TUESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW PUSHES NORTH
AND EAST.

.WEST...SOUTHWEST AK WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSTABLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO BRISTOL BAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ALEUTIANS AS THE
MAIN LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT SOME GALES TODAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE
CHAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MORE PRECIP FOR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHWEST AK MIDWEEK WITH THE LOW
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. ANOTHER LOW WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
GRADUALLY ABSORB THE GULF LOW BY THU. AFTER THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE MODELS PERPETUATING A DEEP TROUGH AND
REFORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A WETTER
PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASHFALL ADVISORY 185 187.
MARINE...ASHFALL ADVISORY 172 175.
         GALES 155 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW AUG 08