Small Craft Advisory 596, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 291124
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-300200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTH OF SITKA WILL WEAKEN TO 1001 MB AND MOVE
ONSHORE NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A 1005 MB
LOW WILL FORM OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL
THEN DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-300200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-300200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO N 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-300200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE MAINLY SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-300200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUST TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-300200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-300200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-300200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-300200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-300200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUL 29 2008

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH ORIENTED SE TO NW
EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE TROUGH
INTO THE COPPER RIVER AND MAT-SU VALLEY. WEAK RIDGING IS FIRMLY IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH ANOTHER, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER LOW IN
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER AND AGREE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF THROUGH ABOUT 60
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING WITH EACH
CONSECUTIVE RUN. THE MOST RELIABLE MODEL RUN WAS FROM THE 00Z GFS
LAST NIGHT...SO WE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO ITS SOLUTION WHICH REFLECTS
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE TUESDAY.
EXPECT PLENTY OF RAIN IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN MAT-SU
VALLEY UNTIL THAT TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND ON THE
PERIPHERY ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW COMMENCES AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT COLD UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE INTERIOR APPROACHING THE ALASKA RANGE LATE TUESDAY. THIS SPELLS
PLENTY OF RAIN FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND SPILL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON
WED. GAPS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND THE THE
BARREN ISLANDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT
MAKES IT OVER THE ALASKA RANGE IS STILL IN QUESTION SO FOR NOW WE
WILL STICK WITH A SCATTERED SHOWER SCENARIO FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. FURTHER WEST...THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WITH
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. A WEAK LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BRINGING OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH WINDS REMAINING AT OR BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THE EAST SIDE...BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT, THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AT BEST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASHFALL ADVISORY 185.
MARINE...ASHFALL ADVISORY 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA/LF