Small Craft Advisory 593, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 272052 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1250 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

UPDATED ZONE 170

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-280200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL WEAKEN TO 1014 MB AND MOVE
TO 130 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 1005 MB LOW 250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OKMOK VOLCANO 65 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS CURRENTLY
ACTIVE.

$$

PKZ150-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-280200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-280200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-280200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-280200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
1250 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF UMNAK
ISLAND AND WESTERN UNALASKA ISLAND...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-280200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-280200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-280200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-280200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-280200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 272313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1012 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 1011 MB LOW 
WILL DEVELOP 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK MON MORNING AND MOVE TO 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT TUE AFTERNOON AT 1010 MB. OKMOK VOLCANO 65 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE. 

$$

PKZ150-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...ASHFALL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY IN THE VICINITY OF 
UMNAK ISLAND AND WESTERN UNALASKA ISLAND...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SURFACE BROAD
SCALE FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM BUT ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME
DECIPHERING SURFACE DETAILS AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. THE SUMMER
LONG TREND OF WANTING TO PULL A NORTHWEST LOW OUT OF RUSSIA AND DROP
IT FAR SOUTH CONTINUES. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR AT BEST.
THEREFORE THERE IS NO MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD LOW SPINNING IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA IS CONTINUING TO BRING RAIN TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY AS A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES AROUND THE LOW. A
STRONGER WAVE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING STEADY LIGHT RAIN FROM THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS TO THE KENAI PENINSULA. A NARROW FRONTAL BAND IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT ARE BRINGING ONSHORE FLOW TO THE MAINLAND WEST COAST AND
ASSOCIATED DRIZZLE..LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THE NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE FRONT MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK IS ERODING TO THE POINT WHERE THE TWO AREAS OF
PRECIP ARE ALMOST CONVERGING OVER KODIAK AND THE BARREN ISLANDS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL KEEPING FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE
BERING AND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BROADENS AND DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL COMPLEX OF LOWS THAT THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLAND AK
AND THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTHWEST AK MON AND MON NIGHT BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO
COASTAL AREAS.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS..THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK KEEPING THE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE BERING AND BLOCKING ANY
ADVANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS. CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN ANY MID TO LONG RANGE
SOLUTION BUT THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASH FALL ADVISORY ZONE 185.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JUL 08