Small Craft Advisory 588, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKDT THU JUL 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH SAT. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE KEEPING A LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND NOT DIGGING THE TROUGH AS DEEP INTO THE NW
INTERIOR AS PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND
AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS SET
UP A WEAK BARRIER JET ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING GALES TO ZONE 120 AS WELL AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM
SOUTHWEST AK TO THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS
BROUGHT WETTING RAINS TO SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY.
A RIDGE OVER THE BERING IS LETTING THE STRATUS AND FOG LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER RUSSIA IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING AND THE BERING STRAIT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL..RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GULF. RAIN WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE LOW
BUT EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. LOOKS LIKE A
PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER
FOG WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE MORNING AS WE SEE SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER THE WET LAND AREAS. SHOWERS AND RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN
ON SATURDAY AS AN EASTERLY WAVE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF.

.SOUTHWEST..DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE Y-K DELTA FRI
EVENING BRINGING RAIN FRI NIGHT AND THEN LINGERING SHOWERS ON SAT
FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MAKE
IT TOO FAR SOUTH THANKS TO THE DOMINANT BERING SEA RIDGE.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS..THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK KEEPING THE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE BERING AND BLOCKING ANY
ADVANCEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BRINGING SOME RAIN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
RANGE MODELS. THERE IS INDICATION OF A REGIME CHANGE OUT WEST WITH A
WARMING TREND AND A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND WHAT IT WILL MEAN FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...ASH FALL ADVISORY ZONE 185.
MARINE...GALE 120 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JUL 08