Small Craft Advisory 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
150 PM AKDT WED JUL 9 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER PATTERN HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD
WITH CLOSED LOWS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN
BERING. A VERY WEAK RIDGE IS CENTERED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. A RIDGE IS ALSO BUILDING OVER THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SEA.

THE LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVED THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING AND PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE
REGION. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH JUST A FEW BREAKS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. AREAS OF FOG ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COPPER BASIN. THE RAINS
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS DROPPED INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN COPPER
BASIN RESULTING IN SWELLING RIVERS AND STREAMS. A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING TO HANDLE THIS. SINCE RAIN HAS ENDED
EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO COME BACK DOWN TONIGHT.

OUT WEST A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND
IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN A NARROW BAND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE BEHIND THE
FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES
AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CONTINUED RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCIES PAST THIS ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC TREND REMAINS THE
SAME. ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST. WILL LEAVE EXTENDED FORECAST AS IS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
TOWARD THE GULF. THIS WILL HELP BREAK UP SOME OF THE CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY MOVING UP SHELIKOF STRAIT AND
THE EAST SIDE OF KODIAK ISLAND IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL POSE A THREAT
TO THE COOK INLET REGION AND NORTH GULF COAST UNTIL THE FLOW SHIFTS
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE YUKON ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER INTERIOR ALASKA WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL APART AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST TONIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. INLAND AREAS WILL STAY DRY WITH PARTIAL SUN.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A COUPLE WEAK LOWS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING. THESE LOWS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS. THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL REMAIN WET THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN DRY OUT THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE BERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THEN GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TOWARD THE GULF AND MAINLAND ALASKA HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. SO IT LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY DRY AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THEN
TRENDING WETTER NEXT WEEK. BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL SEE ITS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
FOG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUL 08