Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 18 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
RUN.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF AND
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INTO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS CLEAR SOME OF
THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA.

THE WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS HAS PRODUCED WARNING
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL AK AND THE GULF...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL AREA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN THE CLEAR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUD
TONIGHT BUT THIS ALSO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING
TONIGHT OVER COOK INLET AND LOW LYING AREAS IN THE INTERIOR. A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF, COOK INLET AND
SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TO MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO
THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUTH SUNDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE PARTS OF THE MATANUSKA VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE AREA.

A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS WILL APPROACH THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TONIGHT BUT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE DELTA COAST
THIS EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. AS
WARMER AIR MOVES NORTH, THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN OVER THE INLAND PORTION OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING
WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS...
THE INTENSE STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY AND INTO THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST
SUNDAY. AN AREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY. A NEW STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187.
         BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM 170 172 179 185 411 412 413 414.
         GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 180 352.
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 160 185 411.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JAN 08