Small Craft Advisory 502, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN. USED A BLEND
TOWARD THE GFS IN THE SHORT TERM BUT DECIDED ON THE ECMWF FOR THE MID
TO LONG RANGE AS IT SEEMS TO HANDLE THE LONG RANGE LOW NEAR THE GULF
BETTER.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AS
IT DOES SO ITS ASSOCIATED LOW IS PUSHING NORTH INTO THE GULF. THIS IS
PRODUCING RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST.
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ENHANCING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE SUSITNA
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND WRAPS BACK AROUND
WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. IT IS BRINGING RAIN AND GALE FORCE
WINDS AS IT GOES.

OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS CONTINE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE WITH
INTERMITTENT AREAS OF FOG. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS FAR TO THE NORTH
LIMITING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING ENHANCING LIFT FROM THE EASTERN COPPER
RIVER VALLEY TO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MCGRATH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND
EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
FOR MUCH OF THE GULF...ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO EAST WINDS
IN THE USUAL CHANNELED TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. RAINFALL WITH
THE FRONT  WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING MOST INLAND AREAS DRY BUT CLOUDY. ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WILL STAY NEAR THE COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THERE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. GUSTY WINDS ARE A
CONCERN ESPECIALLY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...AND WILL BE KEEPING A
STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR THAT ZONE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING...GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN WILL SURROUND THIS
LOW AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. BY THU EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO THE
BERING BRINGING MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST AK AND NORTH OF THE AK RANGE WILL BRING
MORE INSTABILITY TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 125 130 132 138 140 150 160 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JUN 08