Small Craft Advisory 487, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU JUN 12 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NO REAL COMPLAINTS WITH THE MODELS TODAY. THEY
LOOK GOOD PAST 84 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA AND WILL PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY BEFORE
MAKING A SLOW TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
IN THE EAST A THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR.
THE ONE DEVELOPMENT THAT IS A LITTLE UNEXPECTED IS THE INFLUENCE THE
LOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF IS STILL HAVING ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST. WINDS IN SEWARD AND ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
HAVE REMAINED FROM THE NORTH TODAY OVERRIDING THE SEA BREEZE. IT HAS
ALSO CLEARED OUT MOST OF THE STRATUS FROM THE AREA AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY DUE TO
INCREASED HEATING FROM THE PARTIAL CLEARING THAT OCCURRED IN THAT
AREA TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE IN THE EASTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
STRATUS IN THE BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. BRISTOL BAY
AREA SHOULD START TO SEE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN STRATUS TOMORROW
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO CLEARING SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ALLOWING FOR
MORE HEATING AT LOWER LEVELS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUN 08