Small Craft Advisory 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED JUN 4 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN SO GREAT. THE PROBLEMS
ESSENTIALLY ARE HOW THEY HANDLE A LOW THAT CROSSES SOUTHERN ALASKA
AND THE GULF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE
RESOLVING THE COLD AIR WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
SFC LOW MOVING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
CONTROL OF THE BERING. WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NORTHEAST OF KODIAK
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THERE IS A
BROAD CIRCULATION OF SHOWERS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE
INTERIOR. THE RIDGE BUILT IN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST FUELING THE TURNAGAIN ARM WIND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEFORE THE LOW IN THE BERING FOLLOWS THE POLAR JET
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
TO COASTAL SOUTHCENTRAL. TODAY AND TONIGHT MOST OF THE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR OUT WEST. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS LOW WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE Y-K DELTA TONIGHT. MODELS
KEEP PUSHING THE COLD AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BUT MAY SEE A MIX
INTO BRISTOL BAY AND ALONG THE CHIGNIK STRIP AS WELL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVING
EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO START BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EXECUTION OF
THESE EVENTS AND THE LOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. EVEN WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JUN 08