Small Craft Advisory 467, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM ADT SAT MAY 31 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EVEN THE SMALLER SCALE
LOWS/FRONTS MARCHING INTO THE GULF.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF
CHIGNIK WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST SENDING A DECAYING FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS NOT
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH NORTHERN PROGRESS RESULTING INSTEAD
IN GUSTY E-W GAP WINDS AND CONFINING PRECIP TO THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A SECOND...STRONGER LOW DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE MONDAY SPREADING MORE RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FURTHER INLAND THANKS TO A SLACKING IN THE
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. WINDS WILL CRANK UP TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING FOR THE BARREN ISLANDS AND SHELIKOF STRAIT AND
PERSIST POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.

GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH A FEW SHOWERS
IN BRISTOL BAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. FOG AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BERING...AS IS
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE
FULLY IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THE
SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN. THIS LOW WILL BE KICKED OUT EASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP POLAR LOW SLIDES INTO THE BERING SEA FROM
SIBERIA. STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL DETERMINE ITS EXACT
IMPACT ON SOUTHERN ALASKA WEATHER...BUT FAIRLY SHOWERY AND SEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER IS A GOOD BET.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA/BL