Small Craft Advisory 412, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT FRI MAY 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY.  THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT
DEEPER WITH THE PRIMARY EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW  THE DIFFERENCE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 2 TO 8 MB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER MODELS
BUT POSITIONS ARE VERY CLOSE.  THE MODELS WEAKEN THEN DISSIPATE THE
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PRIBILOFS THEN REPLACE IT WITH A DEVELOPING
THEN OCCLUDING LOW FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BY TUE MORNING.
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY MID WEEK  THE 12Z GSM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BEING ALMOST
20 MB DEEPER THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A DOMINATE STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH NEXT WED THEN WEAKEN. THIS TRANSLATES TO A DEEP
POOL OF COLD PARKED OVER THE BERING AND A PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWEST
JET OVER THE EASTERN NORTH GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALL NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
IN THE GULF WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY
MON.  THE PRIBILOF LOW WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE BY SAT NIGHT AS A NEW
LOW DEEPENS SOUTH OF UNALASKA THEN MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS BY TUE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
RAIN WILL DIMINISH ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND THE INTERIOR
WILL STAY DRY.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN SAT AND SUN AS THE GULF LOW
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS AND A WEAK HIGH FORMS OVER NORTHERN COOK
INLET.  LES. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO KODIAK ISLAND SUN THEN TO THE
WESTERN NORTH GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA DURING THE NIGHT. THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS REACHING AREAS LIKE MCGRATH.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL AREAS
BUT COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS. RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUN TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND SUN
NIGHT AND MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
WE EXPECT A STRONG LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AND ONSHORE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL BY MID WEEK AS THE DEEP BERING SEA UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED EASTERN GULF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET PERSIST. STRONG
MARINE WINDS AND RAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 351
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH MAY 08