Small Craft Advisory 403, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 6 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES START TO ARISE
ON FRIDAY. DIFFERENCE ARISE WHEN A LOW COMING OUT OF ASIA MOVES TO
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND RISES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY. THE CURRENT GFS AND NAM DO NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AS STRONG
AS THE PREVIOUS GFS AND ECMWF. THEY BRING THIS LOW WEAKER SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS AND DEEPEN IT JUST WEST OF THE GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND ROLL IT INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z SOLUTIONS KEEP A
LARGE LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT...THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL EMPHASIZE THE 00Z SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE GULF. A WEAK
THERMAL LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL ALASKA CREATING A FOCAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI EAST. THIS THERMAL
LOW TO BE PUSHED A BIT EAST TOMORROW AS THE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
BERING MOVES A FRONT TO KODIAK. THE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL BERING
PROVIDING SOME STRONG WINDS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
BERING SEA. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPED AROUND THIS LOW AS WELL.
BIG QUESTION IS PRECIP TYPE ALONG THE PRIBILOFS. RIGHT NOW...BELIEVE
IT WILL BE ALL SNOW AND HAS A POSSIBILITY TO BECOME A BLIZZARD.
WATCHING THE TEMPS CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AROUND THE LOW. A THERMAL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ALASKA BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE ALASKA
RANGE DENALI EAST. SOME SHOWERS ALSO PRESENT ON THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS. A FRONT WILL PUSH TO KODIAK LATE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN ACROSS
THE GULF. A SECONDARY WAVE TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE
FRONT TO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING. MODERATE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE FRONTS. A LOW TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY INCREASING
TO GALE WINDS AND MORE PRECIPITATION GULF WIDE BUT NOT MAKING IT TO
FAR INLAND.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH WEAK FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A BIT LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO
WIPE FOG AWAY. THE FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO
THE COAST. PRECIPITATION NOT TO REACH INTO KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS MUCH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE FRONT TO LINGER AROUND THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE CENTRAL BERING LOW BRINGING A STRONG FRONT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE BERING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO BE AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
PRECIP TYPE TO REMAIN SNOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS. HOWEVER...TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING AND HOLDING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND MONITORING
OF THE SITUATION IS BEING CONTINUED. THE FRONT TO WEAKEN OUT AS THE
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WEAKENS. PRECIP AND MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS TO ENCIRCLE THE LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST FRIDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND
IS PUSHED ALONG BY AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING THURSDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE
GULF FRIDAY. MAIN LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
REPLACES THIS LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING THIS WEEKEND AND TO REMAIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE INLAND
THROUGH SATURDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY ZONE 141
MARINE...GALE 155 160 172 179
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAY 08