Small Craft Advisory 396, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON MAY 5 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
LITTLE CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH THEN.
ON WED THE GSM IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND WEAK
BREAK OFF LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.  HPC MID RANGE
ALASKA DESK GOES WITH THE GFS FROM 12Z FRI OUT.  WE WILL STICK WITH
THE GSM SOLUTION AND MATCH UP WITH HPC MID RANGE.  THE MAIN FEATURE
FROM WED TO FRI IS A DEVELOPING LOW THAT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. THE LAST TWO GSM CYCLES
AND UKMET HAVE SHOWN CONVERGENCE TOWARD THE PRESENT GSM SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TWO UPPER LOWS ARE AFFECTING ALASKA.  THE PRIMARY CENTER IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE SECOND IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
BY LATE WED.  THE MAIN ALEUTIAN CENTER WILL STAY STATIONARY UNTIL WED
THEN DRIFT TO THE PRIBILOFS BY LATE THU. A DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE JET
STREAM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF BY FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO ANCHORAGE THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THE COPPER RIVER. THE STRONG
WIND GUSTS BROUGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST AS SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS ON SHORE ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF AS EASTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ALEUTIAN LOW BY TUE MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED THEN DRIFT TO WESTERN BRISTOL
BAY BY FRI.  WEST OF THIS LOW EXPECT MINIMUM GALE FORCE WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AHEAD OF THE LOW A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FETCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS BRINGING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
STORM INTO THE BERING SEA THIS WEEKEND. THE TREND SUGGESTS
THAT STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE BERING SEA FOR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  THE GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND THEN DISSIPATE BY MON.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE  160 165 172 175 176 179 180 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG ZONE 111

RHH MAY 08