Small Craft Advisory 378, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE APR 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BEYOND
THAT POINT, THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. SOME
RUNS WILL KEEP THE LOW IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE OTHERS
MOVE IT INTO BRISTOL BAY. AT THIS TIME, WE PREFER TO KEEP THE LOW IN
THE GULF, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND IS LOW.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BIT OF A STAGNANT PATTERN HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE IN THE LAST FEW
DAYS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE BERING SEA AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIES OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WESTERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE BERING SEA, WHILE A
THERMAL LOW EXTENDS OUT OF THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
INTERIOR.

THERE IS NOT MUCH WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND THE BERING
SEA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A 1005 MB LOW ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SPREAD ONTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE THURSDAY
AND WILL BECOME SHOWERS FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN COLD AND DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY, BUT THE
WARMER, UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE REST
OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL PERSIST BUT SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO A RIDGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY. NOT MUCH WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ANYWHERE OVER THE BERING SEA EXCEPT NEAR THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM MODELS IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DIFFERENT RUNS. GENERAL TRENDS INDICATE THE
THE LOW OVER THE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...

*** APR 08