Small Craft Advisory 372, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN APR 27 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER
THAT THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENS A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE OTHER MODELS DO NOT. THIS IS ALSO A BIG CHANGE
FOR THE GFS SO IT SHOULD BE WATCH ON SUBSEQUENT RUNS BEFORE MOVING
THE FORECAST TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA IS THE
CATALYST FOR MOST OF THE WEATHER OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS OVER KODIAK ISLAND
AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE AND EASTERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS FRONT FOLLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
CONNECTS THE LOW IN THE GULF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NORTHWEST
ALASKA.

IN THE WEST THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA IS
BREAKING DOWN AS A WEAK LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA MOVES INTO
THAT AREA. THIS LOW WILL NOT BE OF MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN BRINGING A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION RAIN. KODIAK SHOULD SEE ITS SNOW TURN TO RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH KODIAK
ISLAND.
FOG MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT IN THE COOK INLET REGION AS WELL
AS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE BEYOND MIDWEEK...WITH
MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND...AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING/ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 08