Small Craft Advisory 37, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z GFS MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE AND IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM AND UKMET THROUGH 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH GFS
ENSEMBLE SHOWS GENERAL SPREAD IN MEMBERS BEYOND 72 HOURS...CURRENT
AND LAST RUN WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS FAR FROM PERFECT...FELT IT WAS TIME REFRESH THE
GRIDS WITH LATEST MODEL DATA WHICH AT LEAST BETTER REPRESENTS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT.

.UPPER LEVELS...LONG WAVE OVER 150W HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA MON AS THE
BERING SEA RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. RIDGE MOVES TO OVER THE MAINLAND AND
GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA TUE NIGHT. LONG
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES EAST AND SETS UP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND GULF ALASKA TUE. THIS FLOW PATTERN
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THU...WHICH MEANS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK.

.SURFACE...
.EAST...LOOKS LIKE THE LAST COLD NIGHT FOR A WHILE THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS NORTH AND BRINGS IN A
SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT LOWS AND WARMING THIS WEAK. WEATHER FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA BRINGS MOISTURE AND WINDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF MON AFTERNOON AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL MON NIGHT/TUE.
TRIPLE POINT LIKELY SE OF KODIAK ISLAND MON NIGHT. CENTER WILL MOVE
ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF TUE. PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE MIXED
OVER THE THE GULF AND COASTAL LOCALS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM. INLAND
AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL WILL HAVE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
COULD BE A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF ZONE 125 MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE.
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND FIRST SYSTEM WED/WED NIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR SOME
CLOUD BREAKS AND POSSIBLY FOG FORMATION. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC(NPAC) ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG...WILL BRING WARMING
AND MOISTURE TO THE GULF THU.

.WEST...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS STORM LOW CENTER HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND IS RE-CURVING WNW. STRONG FRONT WHICH PRODUCED
74KT GUSTS AT ADAK IS MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO SW
ALASKA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY
OVER THE PRIBILOFS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BLOWING SNOW WILL SPREAD TO SW ALASKA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUE...BUT
THINKING AT THIS TIME IS NOT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WIND WARNING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT STORM CENTER OVER THE NPAC MOVES TO NEAR ATKA MON AND
TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TUE MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONT SPREADS MOISTURE INTO
SW ALASKA MON EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ZONES 155. BRISTOL BAY ZONE MAY A SHORT PERIOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP MON NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 155 AND GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO ZONE 161.
STRONG WIND HEADLINES LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS AS LOW
CENTER PASSES. SW ALASKA LIKELY TO GET A REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER WED
AS LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUE/TUE NIGHT WITH
NEXT LOW CENTER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND WARNING ENDING ZONE 187. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195.
MARINE...GALE 120, 121, 129, 130, 132, 138, 140, 150, 155, 160, 180
              176,
         STORM 165, 171, 172, 175, 179, 185
         HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING...170
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC JAN 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1046 PM AST SUN JAN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE ADAK STATION      51.86N 176.63W
01/13/2008  M85 MPH                             AK   C-MAN STATION

            ADAK REPORTED A GUST TO 85 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

DANG