Small Craft Advisory 362, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU APR 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONTINUED TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
EARLIER RUNS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA IS PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE INTO
WESTERN CANADA. AN UPPER HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAD TURNED OUT TO BE
DRIER THAN EXPECTED. VERY LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW FELL AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHWEST ALASKA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN SHOWERS
AND WILL MOVE STEADY RAIN INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI
PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE MOST SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHERN VALLEY. LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL
FALL OVER THE ANCHORAGE, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA AND
WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MOST OF THE GULF WILL BE COMING UNDER AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE IS
PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST
SATURDAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE GULF COAST SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY. AREAS
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME SHOWERS SUNDAY THEM DIMINISH
MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WILL BECOME
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS AS WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY AS THE MOIST AIRMASS PENETRATES THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MOST OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL REMAIN UNDER
A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM APR 08