Small Craft Advisory 347, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
119 PM ADT FRI APR 18 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS POSITIONED FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE MAINLAND. THIS RIDGE IS THE CENTER OF A LARGE SCALE OMEGA BLOCK
WITH ITS SCALE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE
WESTERN LOWER 48. MEAN LOW PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN LEG OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK IS PRESENT OVER ALL THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN REGION. GETTING A
LITTLE MORE DETAILED...THE MAIN ANCHOR LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING. A WARM AIRMASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
SPRING IS COMING IN A BIG WAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD A LITTLE MORE...AND SNOW MELTING AWAY
ALLOWING FOR FURTHER WARMING. MANY AREAS WILL REACH OR TOP 50
DEGREES...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN SPOTS A LITTLE
INLAND WHO HAVE ALSO LOST THEIR SNOWCOVER. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE WATER AT TIMES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SURFACE
OVERHEAD SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SOME SEA BREEZES. AS THE RIDGE NUDGES
EAST SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNDAY...SOME RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SNEAK AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS KODIAK...BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TO THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERALLY STAY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...SO THIS REGION WILL BE A BIT MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION THAN SOUTHCENTRAL BUT WILL STILL SEE PLENTY OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES. EVEN HERE...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONFINED FROM THE WESTERN CAPES AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEST INTO THE
BERING SEA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
A STATIONARY WEATHER FRONT ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH IN THE CENTRAL
BERING/ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC AND CROSS THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE. MEANWHILE...A LOW
MOVING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TONIGHT WILL INTENSIFY AND BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TOMORROW. THIS FAIRLY STRONG LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THROUGH
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 150 155 160 165 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY APR 08