Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
130 PM AST FRI JAN 11 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...SOME ASPECTS OF THE GFS RUN FOR OUR AREA LOOKING
MORE LIKE IT DID 2 OR 3 DAYS AGO. SO SOME BLENDING WITH PREVIOUS RUNS
OF THIS MODEL WILL USED IN THE GRIDS IN..BOTH DOMAINS..ESPECIALLY THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WHEN IT FCSTS A 967 MB STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST
BERING. IF TRUE IT WILL FINALLY BREAK THE COLD SNAP IN THAT PART OF
THE AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...12Z FRI 500MB ANALYSIS STILL HAS THE
BLOCKING PATTERN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPPER
TROF AXIS ALONG 157W AND UPPER HIGH ALONG 180 ALEUTIANS NW ACROSS THE
RUSSIAN FAR EAST. FIRST NORTHWEST PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO BREAK THRU BUT HAS BROUGHT SOME SNOW AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO SHEMYA.

A NOTEABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE 18Z GMS RUN IS THAT NOW MOVES THE COLD
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL DROP DUE SOUTH TO
KING SALMON LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN KODIAK SAT AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE AREAS EAST OF THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL GO BACK INTO A
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OFF THE GULF FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW
ESPECIALLY NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THROUGH SAT. THE
UPPER BLOCK WILL FIANLLY BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS STORMS
DEVLOPE AND MOVE INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING.

INTRESTING MESO LOW WEST OF HOMER..WHICH HAS BEEN THERE SINCE AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT..WILL KEEP AREAS FROM HAPPY VALLEY TO SELDOVIA
IN THE HEAVY SNOW SHOWER THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...120 121 130 132 138 140 141
         150 155 160 165.
         GALES AREAS 130 132 138 172 175 176.

PERCY JAN 08