Small Craft Advisory 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT FRI APR 11 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL ARE NOW
DEVELOPING A MODERATE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TOMORROW AS THE
PARENT LOW DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND
SPEED OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS STALLED OVER EASTERN
ALASKA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER IN
COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAD PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR IS BEING ERODED BY A NORTHERN BERING SEA LOW
APPROACHING THE YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT IS
PUSHED INTO WESTERN CANADA BY HE UPPER RIDGE COMING OFF OF THE BERING
SEA SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY AND DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR BUT
CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL
WEAKEN ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
SATURDAY AND WILL MOVE TO NEAR HOOPER BAY SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA SATURDAY WILL MOVE ONTO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL, ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE
ENOUGH WARM AIR COMING UP WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT THE SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF
SHEMYA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THEN SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE EAST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MAINLAND TUESDAY AND ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH MAINLAND ALASKA MONDAY AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL SLICE THROUGH MOST OF
ALASKA BY TUESDAY AND WILL BRING MORE COLD AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE
STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130, 132, 165, 170, 172, 175, 176, 179,
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM APR 08