Small Craft Advisory 285, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAR 30 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NOT SPECTACULAR AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS...BUT DECENT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE COMPLEXITY OF DYNAMICS FROM THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS INTERACTING WITH EACH OTHER. THIS MORNING FORECASTS
LEAN A LITTLE TOWARD THE UKMET WEST OF KODIAK AND MORE TOWARD THE
GFS TOWARDS THE EAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AMPLIFIED SUBTROPICAL JET-STREAM WORKING ACROSS THE PACIFIC BETWEEN
ABOUT 30 AND 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. POLAR JET DRIVEN BY A DEEP
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF SIBERIA...MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA. AN
ELONGATED COLLABORATIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG 150 TO
160 WEST LONGITUDE WITH SOME ENERGY FROM BOTH JETS...BUT NEVER
COMBINED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE LONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WILL MOVE PRECIPITATION INTO MOST AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE GULF RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL INDEED COMBINE
ENERGY FROM BOTH JETS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THIS LOW WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
SOUTH CENTRAL ON TUESDAY...THOUGH IT ALSO WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA...FOR SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 155 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 08