Small Craft Advisory 282, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT MAR 29 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN SIBERIA AND THE CENTRAL AK THIS
MORNING WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
ALCAN AND WESTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
MAINLAND AK AND THE GULF...WITH A WEAK LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS AND A
STRONGER LOW SOUTH OF ADAK. A WEATHER FRONT IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST AK
COAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT
TIME THE GFS IS SHOWING RUN TO RUN INSTABLILITY WITH INCREASINGLY
WESTWARD TRACKS OF A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE BERING. THE FORECAST
RELIES HEAVILY ON THE 12Z GFS...WHICH IS NOT AS EXTREME MOVING THE
STORM TRACK WEST OF MAINLAND AK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...THE DECAYING LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL BRING SNOW TO
NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY...AND RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS. THE LOW SOUTH OF
ADAK MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS SAT. THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN. THESE SYSTEM WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CHAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. DURING THE
SAME TIME PERIOD COLD AIR BEHIND THE THIRD LOW WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

OVER SW AK...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN
ZONES...AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO BRISTOL BAY WITH POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MON. A BRIEF BREAK IS
EXPECTED LATER ON MON AND THEN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIRD LOW
ARRIVES MON NIGHT.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING PRIBILOF
LOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AK RANGE TODAY...WITH SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST...INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ON
KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WILL REACH THE NORTH
GULF COAST LATER ON SUN...WITH NO CHANGEOVER OCCURRING INLAND. SNOW
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT TOWARD THE AK RANGE SUN INTO MON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE THIRD LOW MOVES TOWARD THE SEWARD PENINSULA WED AND BRINGS SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH TUE. THE NEXT LOW BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THE ISLANDS DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
OVER SOUTHWEST AK RAIN CHANGES BACK TO SNOW ON TUE AND ENDS WED
BEFORE REDEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. EAST OF THE AK RANGE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 155 161
MARINE...GALES 130 132
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAR 08