Small Craft Advisory 27, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED JAN 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IS ALSO GOOD. FRIDAY AND
BEYOND THE MODELS ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THE LOW COMING
INTO THE SOUTHER GULF ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE FAIRLY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY WENT WITH A GOOD NUDGE TOWARD GFS THIS MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE
EASTWARD WHILE AND THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY FRIDAY.  A BERING SEA OMEGA BLOCK WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF RUNNING ALONG 35N. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO
CHANGE BY SUNDAY AS THE JET BEGINS TO PUSH UP AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MORE STORMY PATTERN ALONG THE WEST
COAST.

AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY MOVING IN AND OUT OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AIR OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL...
WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST AND THE GULF LOW IN PLACE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS EXPECT AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE OVER MOST AREAS IN SOUTHCENTAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLDER WITH THE WEAK
NORTHERLY FLOW.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...
WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EXPECT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS WITH MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. A MODERATE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH IT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MID RANGE MODELS SHOW THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EAST ON SUNDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONTINUE FEEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDER
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL PUSH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08