Small Craft Advisory 263, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SUN MAR 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES FOR THE FINER DETAILS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE NAM
AND EUROPEAN MODEL HAD INITIALIZED THE GULF LOW IN THE CORRECT
LOCATIONS WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET HAD PLACED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST. BASED ON THIS IT LOOKS LIKE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN MODELS A
BETTER SOLUTION IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REMAIN FIXED OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH REVOLVING AROUND ITS EDGE.

THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER FEATURES IS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE GULF. ELSEWHERE, THERE IS A
STATIONARY AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH A
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL WILL MOVE
INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO NORTON SOUND MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND THE INLAND PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...THE MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST,
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND KODIAK ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA, ALASKA
PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TUESDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAYBE INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK AND
WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW INTO THE WEST COAST OF CANADA BY THE
WEEKEND. THE SHOWERS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN BERING HIGH SHIFTS IN THE EASTERN BERING BY
MIDWEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
MARINE...GALE 130, 150, 155, 165, 170, 171, 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM MAR 08