Small Craft Advisory 210, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AST SUN MAR 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...00Z AND 06Z RUNS OF THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING. THOUGH THEY ALL DIFFER FROM 18Z SAT AND PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THEY NOW MOVE THE LOW INLAND WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS
THIS EVENING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...500 MB LOW IS STACKING ON TOP OF THE
SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST OF KODIAK. THIS HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM AND IS IN LINE WITH SLOWER TREND SEEN IN THE MODELS. STILL NOT
POSITIVE THE BARREN ISLANDS LANDFALL WILL PAN OUT BUT WILL WAIT FOR
12Z RUN TO SEE IF CONSISTENCY HOLDS. SLOWER MOVEMENT IS KEEPING MOST
OF THE PRECIP IN SOUTHCENTRAL RAIN WITH SNOW ON THE WEST SIDE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AK. BY TONIGHT EXPECT COOLING TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TO SOUTHCENTRAL MON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND A WEAK LOW IN
THE EASTERN BERING. EXPECT MORE STRATUS BENEATH A BUILDING RIDGE
MON AND MON NIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL BERING EAST. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW AND GALES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MON
NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...STRONG DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP THE PRECIP OUT OF
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT MORE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM BRISTOL BAY TO BETHEL AND EVENTUALLY SNOW INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS INLAND.

SOUTHCENTRAL...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE MAT-SU DOWN THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND NEAR KODIAK AS THE FRONT LINGERS IN THE GULF WITH
THE SLOW MOVING LOW. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG COASTAL AREAS
AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS
BY LATE THIS EVENING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE INTERIOR AND LINGER THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. A LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CHAIN
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO
DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO WRAP UP SOUTH OF ADAK FRIDAY. THIS NEW LOW TO
INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE BERING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW ENTRENCHED OVER
THE MAINLAND. STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE RULE AROUND THE LOW
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EDGE BOUNDED BY THE COLD INTERIOR AIR MASS. THE
LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120
         GALES 130 132 138 140 141 150
         HVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW MAR 08