Small Craft Advisory 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SAT MAR 8 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT THE NAM. SEEMS THE
MODELS MAY BE A BIT SLOW WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW IN
THE GULF THOUGH...BASED UPON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE NAM IS THE
FARTHEST EAST OF THE SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING WITH THE GULF LOW MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO
DOMINATE OVER THE ARCTIC AND SIBERIA AT THE SURFACE. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL MODELS
AGREE THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR SEWARD AND
LEAVE A WEAK LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW
MOVES TO THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING MON AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD FRONT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW AND SUCCESSION OF LOWS WILL BE
THE MAIN PLAYER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.UPPER LEVELS...
THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WITH A NEW MEAN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN BERING
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.ANALYSIS...
A SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LAST NIGHT AND BROUGHT GOOD
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING
BUT NEXT SYSTEM IN THE GULF ALREADY SPREADING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE KENAI PENINSULA WINDWARD
SIDE. A STRONG FRONT WILL WORK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH GAPS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.  FOG WAS PREVALENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TONIGHT TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SHOULD START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF
LOW AND EXPERIENCE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW AND SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL BERING
CONTINUING SHOWERS THERE THROUGH TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA AND BERING...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING KEEPING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK AS WELL. HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER THE BERING
SEA. HOWEVER...A FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT MOVE PAST ADAK TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING.

WESTERN ALASKA...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTON SOUND CREATING AREAS OF SNOW AND
FOG OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA. SOMEWHAT CLEAR CONDITIONS
OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA OUTSIDE OF THE FOG THIS MORNING. BRISTOL
BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO START BEING INFLUENCED BY A LOW IN
THE GULF. WINDS TO BECOME MODERATE ALONG THE PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
RANGE WITH THE LOW SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD OVER THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE TONIGHT AND OVER THE REGION TOMORROW OUT TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA. SOME SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AS WELL. THE
LOW TO SLIDE INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE MAINLAND MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME BENIGN AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ON THE
DECLINE AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE BERING MOVES ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...
LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF PUSHING A STRONG FRONT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH A
BARRIER JET MOST LIKELY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING NORTH OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND TO HINCHINBROOK AND THE SOUTHERN SOUND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING STRONG WINDS TO TURNAGAIN ARM TOMORROW AND OTHER EAST WEST
GAPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS
WOULD MEAN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE ANCHORAGE AND PORTAGE
AREA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN KENAI. STRONG WINDS TO WRAP AROUND THIS
LOW ON THE BACKSIDE NEAR KODIAK ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION TO KODIAK.

PRECIPITATION ALREADY ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA WINDWARD SIDE AND
ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR AREAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LOW TO MOVE INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COLD AIR TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH MOST AREAS CHANGING TO SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW TO WEAKEN
INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE DECLINE
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH PACIFIC. AGREE WITH HPC ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION THAT
CONSOLIDATED LOW TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW TO DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THESE TWO SYSTEM TO
WRAP UP SOUTH OF ADAK FRIDAY. THIS NEW LOW TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE
BERING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW ENTRENCHED OVER THE MAINLAND. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD THE RULE AROUND THE LOW ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EDGE BOUNDED
BY THE COLD INTERIOR AIR MASS. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 120 130
         GALE 121 125 129 132 138 140 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN MAR 08