Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST SUN FEB 24 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
EAST...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS LOOK FAIRLY
REASONABLE THROUGH 60 HR(TUE). THEY HAVE A SIMILAR HANDING OF
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...STRONGER LOW TO SOUTH...AND
MAINLAND RIDGE. GFS/EC TEND TO HOLD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 96
HR(WED NIGHT). DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BEYOND.

.WEST...UNSTABLE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.
MODELS WILL TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE GFS 12Z GFS RUN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THEN
PREVIOUS 00Z RUN BY KEEPING THE GENERAL LOW COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE CHAIN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BERING SEA
ICE EDGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION INTO SW AK WILL HOLD UP SURFACE
PRESSURES AND FORCE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...A WEAK LOW CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT/MON AS UPPER CENTER DROPS SW TOWARD THE AK
PEN. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT
SNOW/SN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUDS SPREADING WEST OVER THE GULF AND
COPPER RIVER AND RADAR DATA SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH GULF.
DRYING SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/COPPER RIVER/NORTH GULF MON
NIGHT AND TUE AS COLD ADVECTION AND GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW. GAP
WINDS LIKELY TO BE EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF TONIGHT/MON WITH
WEAK PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE PACKING. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THESE WINDS
WILL ENOUGH FOR MINIMUM STRONG WIND HEADLINES.

.WEST...WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA REACHES ITS PEAK
WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW -18C TONIGHT AND MON. AFTER THAT
THE ADVECTION BECOMES GENERALLY NEUTRAL AS THE LOW CENTER DROPS SOUTH
TOWARD THE AK PEN AND SETS UP EASTERLY FLOW. AS UPPER CENTER DROPS
SOUTH EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MON/MON NIGHT INTO SW
ALASKA. STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY TO HOLD OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AK
PEN/EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW. STRONG
WINDS WITH FRONTAL TROUGH/STORM CENTER OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL
HOLD WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS OUT WEST. MADE FEW
CHANGES IN THE EAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 175 AND 176. GALES 172 AND 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 141 165 179 AND 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 08