Small Craft Advisory 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT FEB 9 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA
BUT IS LESS SO IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS VERY POOR CONSENSUS OF
THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF
MONDAY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE STATE IS BREAKING DOWN AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST CANADA IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER YUKON
VALLEY. ANOTHER UPPER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS HELPING TO
ENERGIZE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SUPPORTED BY A
LOW IN THE GULF AND A HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT COLD DRY AIR FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO THE EASTERN
MAINLAND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF HAS MOVE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND BRISTOL BAY. SO FAR,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SECTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL NOT MOVE FURTHER NORTH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL BE PUSHED WEST
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NORTON SOUND MONDAY. THIS
SHIFT IN PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP SOUTHERN ALASKA TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE GULF...
A 973 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO JUST EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND WEAKEN TO 984 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
SUPPORTING LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. AREAS OF SNOW ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER KODIAK ISLAND SHOULD END
THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF MONDAY AND WILL ONLY PRODUCE SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST MONDAY. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED
TERRAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTH-SOUTH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A CONTINUOUS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH MONDAY.

ALEUTIANS AND THE BERING.
A 962 MB LOW 200 MILES SOUTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 150 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ATKA AND WEAKEN TO 986 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MAINLAND ALASKA WILL COME UNDER A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH MORE MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVING UP FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR KODIAK ISLAND.
MARINE...GALE 120, 130, 132, 172, 175, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM FEB 08