Small Craft Advisory 1017, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 200239 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
540 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
540 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 25 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS EVENING. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT...EXCEPT SE WIND 30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT
THIS EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 5 FT EXCEPT SEAS 10 FT SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 5 FT.

.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 201301
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY THIS MORNING 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN DISSIPATES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. ELSEWHERE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NORTHWEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE...NE
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
ELSEWHERE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CLAM GULCH...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
ELSEWHERE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST FRI DEC 19 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MEAN LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE STATE. THE CHINK IN THIS BLOCKING RIDGE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE IS PULLING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING WHICH WILL ALLOW THE THE UPPER RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE. THE SURFACE LOW IS A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW INTO THE GULF.
A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL
ROTATE NORTH OF THE MAIN LOW AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST.
A COMPLEX LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WEST THE JET
STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND BERING SEA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND. THE NAM KEEPS IT A LITTLE STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW. THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH IT BEING NOT MUCH MORE THAN A TROUGH.
OTHER THAN THAT THE MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY LIMITED TO A SWATH
FROM KODIAK THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND AGAIN IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THAT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE EVENING GOES ON.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
SOMEWHAT OF A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH FASTER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW OVER THE REGION AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ZONAL JET STREAM GETS
INVOLVED. THIS MEANS ACTIVE AND MORE CHANGEABLE WEATHER FOR THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IT IS STILL HARD TO TELL JUST HOW MUCH OF A CHANGE THE MAINLAND WILL
SEE HOWEVER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 140 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08