Hurricane Force Wind Warning 7, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230058
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT. A 986 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KISKA TUE EVENING WILL MOVE TO 
NEAR KISKA AT 972 MB WED MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 275 NM WEST OF ST
PAUL AT 980 MB THU AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER
GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT.  
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SNOW.  
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
45 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 30 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT.
SEAS 25 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 70 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST MON JAN 21 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN MOSTLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS. THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE BERING
SEA PAST 74 HOURS BUT THAT IS NOT UNUSUAL. THE LARGER ISSUE LOOKS TO
BE IN THE NEAR TERM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AREA. SATELLITE SHOWS A
WAVE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT IS NOT ON THE GFS MODEL AT ALL. IT IS
ON THE NAM MODEL BUT THE NAM HAS IT MOVING NORTH TOO QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FAR TO THE WEST. IN SHORT...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FEATURE THAT
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BUT NONE OF THE
MODELS APPEAR TO HANDLE IT VERY WELL.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG LOW MOVING OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA IS ON TRACK AND SHOULD MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT
AND THEN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AFTER THAT. THIS LOW IS QUITE WARM
AND IS BRINGING RAIN AHEAD OF IT AND WITH IT. THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER SHARP BEHIND THIS LOW AND AREAS WEST OF IT WILL BE
IN SNOW.
IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION IS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING UP THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE MORE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE SINCE THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THERE ARE NOT SHOWING A
STRONG RESPONSE TO IT. HOWEVER IT IS IN A DATA SPARSE AREA AND RADAR
SHOWS A LOT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND IN THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH IT. THE SUSPICION IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A BIG
INFLUENCE ON SURFACE GRADIENT BECAUSE OF IT BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LOTS OF PROBLEM AREAS OUT WEST WITH THIS LOW.
THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS GETTING CLOSE TO WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS THE
FRONT IS RIGHT ON THEM AND SO ARE THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WILL GET INTO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITIES ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD WARNING...AND RIGHT NOT IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT. THINKING IS THAT THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOVING OUT AS THE WIND INCREASES AND THERE WILL ONLY BE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY.
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA IS ALSO A BLIZZARD CANDIDATE FOR TOMORROW. IT
WILL BE WARM AND RAINY TONIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SNOW AS THE
TEMPERATURE RAPIDLY DROPS. EASTERN AREA OF ZONE 155 MAY ALSO STRUGGLE
WITH THIS AS WELL AS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL
BE BREEZY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE EAST THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH WIND AND HOW MUCH
MELTING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. CURRENTLY FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN FOR A CHINOOK WIND EVENT WITH WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW
OUT WEST AND THE TRACK IT IS TAKING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND. IN ANCHORAGE
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COME OVER THE CITY AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN
THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THERE IS A WRENCH IN THE
WORKS IN THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE IN THE GULF. IF IT DOES
HAVE A STRONGER EFFECT AT THE SURFACE IT WILL BAG OUT THE PRESSURE
FIELD AND GREATLY DIMINISH WINDS FROM WHAT ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER
THIS REMAINS MORE OF A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAN A LIKELY SCENARIO.
SUMMED UP...IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL BE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF
WIND UP COOK INLET THAN A CHINOOK EVENT WITH ADIABATIC WARMING OFF TE
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WILL RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY A RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT A GOOD BIT OF THE AREA...BUT
BEWARE OF FOG AND STRATUS AS THERE IS A LOT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
LEFT BY THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
A LARGE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MID WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 140 150 171 172 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 155 160 165 170 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08