High Wind Watch 11, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NOT SPECTACULAR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT AN
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. OF COURSE THIS DEGRADES
SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING ABOUT DAY FOUR OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY).

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA. WEAK RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA WITH THE ARCTIC JET TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND THE (MAIN) SUBTROPICAL JET DOWN AROUND 40
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ARE GRABBING SOME
ENERGY FROM EACH JET.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
EXPECT THE GULF LOW TO WEAKEN TODAY AND THEN KICK OUT OF THE AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PUSHING UP FROM THE
SOUTH DUE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATER TUESDAY. THE BERING LOW WILL
WORK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY AND REACH THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND BRISTOL BAY EARLY TUESDAY. THE BERING LOW WILL THEN
WEAKEN AS THE NEW GULF LOW DOMINATES THE PICTURE IN THAT AREA.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING BOMB WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUESDAY AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD...JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLAND CHAIN. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLY
VERY HIGH WINDS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE GULF LOW WILL KICK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
ALEUTIAN LOW WORKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS LOW (THE FORMER ALEUTIAN ONE) WILL INTERACT WITH A POLAR LOW
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ALASKA. AS MENTIONED...THE DETAILS
AT THIS TIME BECOME UNCLEAR AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DROPS TO
VERY LOW LEVELS. PROBABLY THE MEAN LOW WILL BE OVER ALASKA NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT DETAILS ARE SKETCHY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 176.
         GALE WARNING 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 08