Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 050052
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 985 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-051500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 5
FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-051500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-051500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-051500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-051500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-051500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-051500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
TO 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS TO
9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-051500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-051500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI JAN 4 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
725 PM AST THU JAN 3 2008

.UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATED BY A COLD CORE LOW
ANCHORED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WELL DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES EXIST BOTH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE BERING SEA.

.ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...AT THE SURFACE A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AROUND A SMALL LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND KODIAK ISLAND WILL HAVE A DRYING
EFFECT.

MEANWHILE OUT WEST STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BERING SEA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM THE WEST.

A SMALL 985 MB LOW ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF SHEMYA IS PROGGED TO
DISSIPATE ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING.
MINIMAL WIND AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN OKAY AGREEMENT. ECMWF MODEL PREFERRED
DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. NAM IS THE
LEAST RELIABLE SOLUTION. GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO ECMWF BUT WITH A
COUPLE OF NOTABLE DIFFERENCES.

GFS DOES NOT INITIALIZE THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK TODAY AS DEEPLY AS
IT SHOULD AND DOES NOT MOVE IT AS CLOSE TO THE ISLAND TONIGHT AS THE
ECMWF OR UKMET. THUS GFS IS LIKELY UNDER FORECASTING THE NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND FOR TODAY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GFS IS
ALSO OVERDOING PRECIP FOR THE ISLAND. BEWARE.

OUT WEST GFS SOLUTION DIFFERS NOTABLY FROM ECMWF ONLY IN ITS HANDLING
OF A SMALL LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE GFS RECOGNIZES A WEAK
1000 MB NEAR 46N 176E FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARCS IT TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY. ALL OTHER MODELS RECOGNIZE A SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONGER LOW AND KEEP IT WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS
FEATURE BEARS MONITORING BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL KEEP THE MARINE
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUB GALE IN ACCORDANCE WITH ECMWF
SOLUTION.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A
MODERATE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 330 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 00Z SUN.
MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH BUT DO AGREE ON POSITION. FEATURE MAY
MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT WILL NOT LIKELY PROGRESS PAST ADAK
DUE TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 160 165 172 175
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 08