Gale Warning 878, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 301259
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310300-
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A 984 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES WEST AND
DISSIPATES TUE NIGHT. A 964 MB LOW DEVELOPS 550 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 470 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 963 MB
WED NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-310300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-310300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-310300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-310300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-310300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-310300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-310300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-310300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI AND SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-310300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE DEC 30 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON DEC 29 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. FORECAST TRENDS
ARE SIMILAR AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH STRONG BERING SEA RIDGE AND
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. BLOCK WILL GENERALLY HOLD
THROUGH LATE THIS WEAK WITH SOME MODIFICATION AS CUT-OFF LIFTS NORTH
AS STRONG CENTER MOVES FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA FRI. THIS LOW THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
BERING SEA HIGH CENTER MOVES OVER NE RUSSIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
MAINTAIN STRONG GAP/DRAINAGE FLOWS THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH TUE.
NE WINDS OVER THE MAT VALLEY WILL BE ENHANCED SOME TONIGHT AS UPPER
FLOWS STRENGTHENS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW WARNING LEVELS TUE
MORNING AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS. VERY COLD DENSE AIR COMBINED
WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
CONTINUE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA INTO
TUE AFTERNOON. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND WARNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT...FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WIND WARNING FOR THE COPPER RIVER DELTA THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTH TO EAST WINDS LIKELY TO HOLD IN ZONE 131
THROUGH TUE MORNING. STRONG WIND HEADLINE SHOULD ADEQUATELY COVER
THIS ZONE AS THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.
ONLY CONSIDERATION WOULD BE ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT OVER THE
AREA.

COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THIS
WEEK. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPS WILL SUSTAIN WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 141...145...AND 135 THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON AND
MAYBE THROUGH WED MORNING.

.WEST...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS RIDGE TAKES HOLD. COLD TEMPS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE
CREATING LOCALLY LOW WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER
THE MAINLAND THROUGH THIS WEEK...THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE SOME WED
NIGHT AND THU AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES INLAND AS UPPER SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF THE AK PEN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUE WAS COLD AIR FLOWING OFF THE SW MAINLAND PICKS UP
MOISTURE FROM OPEN WATER SOUTH OF THE ICE PAC. SNOW SHOWERS COMBINED
WITH WINDS ARE CAUSING LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE AK PEN IN
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE AREA TUE.

GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC BUMPS UP AGAINST THE BERING SEA RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONES 111 135.
         HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 131
MARINE...GALE 121 129 130 138 160 170 171 171 175 176
         HEAVY SPRAY 121 125 129 130 138 140 141 150 160 165 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08