Gale Warning 865, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH 156 HOURS. ALSO
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS OPERATIONAL CHOICE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
PREDOMINANT FEATURES ALOFT THROUGH 60 HOURS ARE A DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
A 973 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN TO 989 MB BY SUN MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN PERSIST INTO THE COMING WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN STALL OUT AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUN EVENING.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SNOW TAPERING OFF THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.
GAP WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. BLIZ CONDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW THROUGH PORTAGE VALLEY...IN
WHITTIER...AND THROUGH THOMPSON PASS.

.SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...
KUSKOKWIM SNOW EVENT IS RAPDILY TAPERING OFF. UNFORTUNATELY NO RECENT
SPOTTER REPORTS BUT STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ESTIMATED TO BE
AROUND 6 INCHES. GUSTY NORTH WINDS COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY WILL DECREASE VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING...BUT GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ 125 135.
MARINE...GALES 120 121 129 160 165 170 171 175 176 179 180
         STORMS 130 132 138 140 141 150 155
         HEAVY SPRAY 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 160 165 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB DEC 08