Gale Warning 850, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST SAT DEC 20 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH INITIALIZED A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH ON THE LOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE NAM ALSO HAS IT A LITTLE STRONGER
THIS EVENING WHICH IS PROBABLY GOOD. THIS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON THE FORECASTS SINCE THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE STATE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS IS KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN QUIETER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE JET STREAM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FOR THE BERING SEA
AREA MONDAY AND THEN EXTEND OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA BY TUESDAY.

THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE EAST IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH THE SECONDARY AND WEAKER LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PULLS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WEST A COMPLEX LOW IS IN THE KAMCHATKA AREA AND WILL
EVENTUALLY FOLLOW THE EASTERN RUSSIA COAST TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS TO CROSS THE
BERING SEA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS LOW COMPLEX.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THERE IS NOT A LOW OF WEATHER TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY. THERE IS RAIN IN KODIAK AND SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
NEAR THE NORTH GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE FRONT IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS WEAKENING AND BRINGING MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
THERE. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE BERING SEA. THE COOK INLET
REGION COLD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS ARE NOT
NEARLY AS FAVORABLE FOR IT AS COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND
TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING...IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE BERING AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE MAINLAND AND A GENERAL DRYING TREND AFTER AN UNSETTLED EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 08