Gale Warning 791, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 242347
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-251500-
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR 58N 169W WED NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 987 MB WHILE
MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THU MORNING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW WIND 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-251500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW WIND 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL OVERALL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
AND REASONABLE THROUGH DAY 3. MODELS TEND TO TREND TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7...THOUGH THE ECMWF PRESSURES LOOK TOO LOW FOR
CENTER IN THE GULF DAYS 4 AND 5. THOUGH MODELS DIFFER SOME IN
FORECASTS...INITIALIZATIONS WERE REASONABLE THIS MORNING AND NEXT 36
HR FORECAST TRENDS ARE CLOSE.

.UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW CENTER OVER THE NW COAST
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY JET OVER THE
BERING SEA PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
TONIGHT BEHIND UPPER TROUGH. A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA LATER TODAY AND SHIFTS TO THE MAINLAND AND GULF
WED NIGHT. THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AS A SHORT MOVES ACROSS THE
MAINLAND EARLY FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...LOW CENTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE AND SUPPORTING
UPPER JET OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS/KODIAK ARE PRODUCING A BAND OF
STRONG WINDS. SNOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND AND SURFACE LOW PUSHES SE TOWARD THE PANHANDLE. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS FOR ZONE 125 LOOK REASONABLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOP NEAR SEWARD AND WHITTIER AND PICK
UP NEWLY FALLEN SNOW. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE WED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON WED NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE GENERAL DRYING
ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG. MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE NE PACIFIC WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO KODIAK WED NIGHT AND SOUTHCENTRAL
THU.

.SOUTHWEST...THE SNOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE VALLEY. SNOW SHOWERS AND BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS AREA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WED MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE SW COAST AND BRISTOL BAY. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ALONG
COASTAL AREAS WITH RIDGE. WEAK LOW CENTER MOVES WEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS WED MORNING AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY WED
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BRINGS A SHOT AT SNOW INTO COASTAL SW
ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRYING AND THE ONSET OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF THU AND RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...BRISK WESTERLY WINDS WITH RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING SEA THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND TO
NEAR THE PRIBILOFS ON WED. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS TO BRISTOL
BAY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
THU AND SPREADS EAST THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...EXPECT COLD CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
MAINLAND OVER THE WEEKEND.  OUT WEST EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125. CANCELED BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 121.
MARINE...GALE 120 121 125 129 138 140 141 150 155 160 165 170 171
              172 175 176 179 180 185.
         STORM 130 132.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 08