Gale Warning 785, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 171237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR ATKA EARLY THIS MORNING STRENGTHENS TO 988 MB THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 53N 173W. THE LOW THEN DRIFTS TO 52N 166W
LATE THU NIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 995 MB.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...WEST OF 176W...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. EAST
OF 176W...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST WED DEC 17 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKST TUE DEC 16 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 96 HOURS OR SAT MORNING.
THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS DIFFERED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
GFS MOVING AN ALEUTIAN LOW TO KODIAK AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
QUEEN CHARLOTTES.  THE ECMWF TRACKED THIS LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND
FASTER. THE MODELS ARE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION TODAY BUT THE ECMWF
STILL IS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO UNDERCUT THE GFS TRACK TO THE SOUTH
AND BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN FORMING A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHARLOTTES SAT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER AIR...A VERY STABLE WAVE NUMBER 2 PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE
ARCTIC AND SUB ARCTIC.  THE TRANSLATION IS A LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FIXED IN PLACE OVER ALASKA.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE
IN THE TO THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY THEN TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
WEST COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
NORTHERN BERING SUNDAY AND MOVE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA ON MONDAY.

SURFACE...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF UNALASKA TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY WED NIGHT.  ANOTHER LOW NEAR ADAK WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
TO UNALASKA BY THU AFTERNOON AND THEN TO JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND
BY LATE FRI.  A MODERATELY STRONG LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEAR JAPAN TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN BERING BY FRI.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM AGAIN TONIGHT FROM THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND DOWN
ALONG COOK INLET. ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION
BY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING SOME.

SOUTHWEST...
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
ALONG THE COAST AND ALL SNOW INLAND. IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING A CHANCE OF SNOW
TONIGHT AND SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY.

ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA/BERING SEA...
EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE PRIBILOFS.  RAIN WILL MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
LOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE
COLD AIR DROPPING DOWN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS/ALASKA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY WILL MOVE JUST EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND REFORM AS A DEVELOPING TRIPLE POINT LOW OFF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
GULF ON SUNDAY. A LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING FRIDAY AND A
STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY. THE REMAINS
OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 160 165 172 175 176 179 180 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RHH DEC 08