Gale Warning 780, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 110018
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-111500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A STRONG FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN 
AS IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN BERING THU NIGHT AND INLAND ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRI. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
WESTERN BERING FRI.

$$

PKZ411-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-111500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED DEC 10 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 111226
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A STRONG FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN BERING THU NIGHT AND INLAND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA FRI
MORNING.  ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING FRI
MORNING AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2008

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-120300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU DEC 11 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AKST TUE DEC 9 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...REX BLOCK IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH A STRONG CLOSED UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BEAFORT SEA AND
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THE UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED
MULTIPLE CENTERS THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY THE GULF LOW CENTER AND
A NEW CENTER OVER WESTERN ALASKA WHICH IS FORMING IN RESPONSE A
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM RIDING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GULF LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD SEWARD AND WINDS ARE NOW DIMINISHING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE THE BERING SEA
REGION AS COLD AIR ADVECTS FROM SIBERIA ACROSS THE BERING AND DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE GULF LOW.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO
VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE UPPER LOW CENTER FORMING OVER WESTERN
ALASKA WILL BECOME DOMINANT TONIGHT WHILE THE GULF LOW OPENS INTO
A TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALONG WITH SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH MOVING THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHERN TO EASTERN SIDES OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AREAS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW BACK OVER WESTERN SOUTHCENTRAL WILL ALSO SEE
SNOW OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AND AID IN GENERATING
SNOW. ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL ROTATE FROM THE BERING
SEA ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...HELPING TO
PRODUCE A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. SINCE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAIRLY WEAK EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL. UPSLOPE AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND CAN EXPECT
THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT LACK OF STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WILL KEEP TOTALS BELOW
WARNING LEVELS. THE REGION WILL DRY OUT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT LOWER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY.
THUS...EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. A
FRONT FROM A STRONG WESTERN BERING LOW WILL MOVE TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING STEADIER PRECIPITATION AND
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS FLOW THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT AND
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS CURRENTLY NOT MUCH SNOW
ON THE GROUND TO BLOW AROUND...BUT A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW TO BLOW
AROUND WOULD ALLOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO. THIS WILL BE
RE-EVALUATED RIGHT BEFORE TH NEW FORECAST GOES OUT AT 4PM. THERE IS
NOW MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM
FORMING NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. EXPECT A STRONG FRONT TO
QUICKLY CROSS THE BERING SEA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING TO NORTHWEST ALASKA
ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MODELS ARE NOW VERY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A
RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD TO MAINLAND ALASKA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SET UP AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK
FROM KAMCHATKA TO NORTHERN ALASKA. SOME OF THESE SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT
MAINLAND ALASKA AS THEY MOVE OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...175 176.
         GALE WARNING...120 130 179 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 08