Gale Warning 759, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 270019
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-271500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 75 NM NORTHWEST OF CAPE ROMANZOF WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES TO NORTON SOUND WED NIGHT. A 950 MB LOW 475 NM SOUTH OF ATKA
WILL WEAKEN TO 979 MB AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK FRI
AFTERNOON. A LOW WILL TRACK OUT OF RUSSIA THU AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO
175 NM WEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON AT 998 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-271500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-271500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-271500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-271500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-271500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. 
SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-271500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT EXCEPT NE 40 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT EXCEPT N 30 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 
20 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND. 
SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-271500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-271500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-271500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WHICH LINE UP WELL. EC AND NAM HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BETTER AT CATCHING THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS. GFS
WANTS TO TROUGH THEM OUT TOO SOON AND PUSH THEM INLAND. THAT BEING
SAID BELIEVE A WEAK LOW THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP NEAR SEWARD THIS
MORNING WILL ACTUALLY TROUGH OUT MORE THAN INDICATED FOLLOWING MORE
OF AN EC TRACK. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A
950S LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY. EXACT TRACK IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AND
THE END RESULT OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA IS THE SAME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WE CONTINUE TO BE IN A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF LOWS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. LOW
NUMBER ONE IS JUST WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND MOVING QUICKLY
EASTWARD. LOW NUMBER TWO CAME ON SHORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LAST
NIGHT BUT ITS ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING FRONT IS STILL ENTRAINING SOME
SNOW ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. COLD AIR THAT WAS
PUSHED IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WESTERN AK IS
KEEPING ALL OF THE PRECIP SNOW FOR NOW AND KICKING UP THE WINDS
THROUGH WEST GAPS AS WELL. SPOTTERS FROM SOLDOTNA TO EAGLE RIVER
REPORTED A DRY SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS JUST LESS THAN 2 INCHES
THROUGH LATE YESTERDAY EVENING.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE BRIEF AS LOW NUMBER THREE
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTH TOWARD THE GULF. ITS OCCLUSION IS
CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF SAND POINT
TO ANNETTE ISLAND.

FARTHER WEST LOW NUMBER 4 IS STILL STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING LOWEST PRESSURES IN
THE UPPER 940S AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL..IT LOOKS LIKE THE FREEZE/THAW ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONE SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER MOVES
TOWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DRY OUT BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TODAY...BUT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT LOW MOVING TOWARD THE GULF WILL SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS
ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TURN PRECIPITATION BACK TO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE MAJOR PACIFIC
STORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL AS
THE OCCLUSION APPROACHES KODIAK ISLAND. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
LOW ACROSS THE GULF IS STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT A TRACK
ALONG THE FAR WESTERN GULF LOOKS MOST LIKELY...WHICH MEANS LOTS OF
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST AK..CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A
SURFCACE HIGH TODAY. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE POINT OF CHANGING
PRECIPITATION TO RAIN...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
STORM TRACK.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING..CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY HEAD DOWNHILL TODAY DUE
TO THE STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW WITH WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS OF
40 TO 60 MPH LOW VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
FORTUNATELY WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY WARM...SO SURFACE
AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING...ELIMINATING THE THREAT OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WILL SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE OCCLUSION
APPROACHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONT WILL NEVER MOVE
THROUGH. SO IT WILL LIKELY BE MAINLY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE PERIOD
OF RAIN. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY BROAD
NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS...CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS...EXPECT THE TYPICAL
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODELS HAD A HICCUP MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM TONIGHT SO CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE IN
THE OVERALL ON GOING PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORMS 170 172
         GALES  120 125 130 140 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RW NOV 08