Gale Warning 753, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 251251
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-260300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 984 MB LOW 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARD
EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND DISSIPATE BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 985 MB
LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR CORDOVA AT
987 MB TUE NIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 440 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 175
NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 985 MB WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-260300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-260300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-260300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-260300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-260300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-260300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-260300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-260300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-260300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 25 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1250 PM AKST MON NOV 24 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE STRONG LOW THAT TRACKED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY HAS MOVED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
IS NOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE BOTTOMED OUT
AROUND 969 MB AND THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO FILL. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. STEADY SNOW IS GENERALLY CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THIS FRONT
FROM DILLINGHAM NORTHWESTWARD TO ANIAK. MEANWHILE OCCLUDED FRONT
IS APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST. A BARRIER JET HAS FORMED FROM
THE NORTHEAST GULF TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT WINDS ARE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO COME DOWN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND FALLS APART.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAS BEEN IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WHERE RATES AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR WERE
REPORTED IN GIRDWOOD. PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY HAVE
ALSO SEEN SOME UPSLOPE SNOW. A REPORT FROM SKWENTA INDICATES LIGHT
ACCUMULATION...BUT EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WERE LIKELY HEAVIER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SUCH AS HAZE RIVER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DOWNSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE REGION
HAVE SEEN LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE LOW ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TO
ANOTHER VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NORTHWEST OF ADAK AND THEN CONTINUING
WESTWARD TO ANOTHER LOW OFF OF KAMCHATKA. THIS TROUGH IS BEING
PUSHED VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SO THE LOW IS JUST DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WEAK COLD ADVECTION DOMINATES
THE BERING SEA...PRODUCING A LOT OF STRATOCU AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS.
MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...12Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM ALL HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND DEPICT A SIMILAR TRACK AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT AS WELL AS A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW IN
BRISTOL BAY. GFS INCORRECTLY PUTS A BROAD LOW FARTHER NORTH AND
TRACKS THIS TO THE BARREN ISLANDS BEFORE JOINING UP WITH THE REST
OF THE SOLUTIONS IN THE NORTH GULF. A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE WITH THIS TRACK. WILL GO WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION WHICH
LINE UP WELL. ECMWF IS VERIFYING BEST WITH THE ALEUTIAN LOW NEAR
ADAK. ACTUAL LOW POSITION IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF...BUT
ALL OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH TOO FAR EAST. WILL STICK WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWEST IN MOVING THIS LOW SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A
950S LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY. EXACT TRACK IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS ARE GROUPED IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA
AND THE END RESULT OF STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND
ALASKA PENINSULA IS THE SAME. WILL SIMPLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO BUMP UP WINDS IN A FEW PLACES. ANOTHER LOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING
INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY. THE TREND IS TOWARD A FARTHER NORTH AND
WEST TRACK ON ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS. WILL TREND TOWARD THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THIS LOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
QUICKLY FALL APART THIS AFTERNOON...SO WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIGHTEN UP IN UPSLOPE AREAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MOVE ONSHORE. THUS...SNOW WILL
BECOME STEADY IN THE VALDEZ AREA WITH RAIN IN CORDOVA. THE LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
GULF BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN INLAND DURING THE
DAY...BRINING MORE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW INLAND AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
ALSO OF NOTE...IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW IS A VERY TIGHT THERMAL
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE KODIAK ISLAND WATERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE ARE LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN SHELIKOF STRAIT...AND SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ROTATING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD ANCHORAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE
FORECAST IS FAIRLY DRY SO WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SNOW
AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS
TO BE OVER A SMALL AREA...SO THE EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS
THE MOST SNOW. THERE IS DEFINITE POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST TREND IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCES OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INCLUDING ANCHORAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BAND OF SNOW FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE INLAND
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING WILL SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE TO NO QPF AS THIS MOVES THROUGH. WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A
DECENT STRENGTH TROUGH AXIS WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE DELTA AND JUST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INLAND.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THIS TROUGH ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE BEHIND THE
FIRST TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
MUCH...THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND OVER THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA HEADING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...QUIKSCAT WINDS SHOWS A TIGHT AREA OF GALE
FORCE WINDS AROUND THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD CROSSING OVER THE ALEUTIANS NEAR ADAK EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. BROAD WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS LOW AND SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. A PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...IN AN IDEAL POSITION BETWEEN TWO
UPPER JETS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL COME TO THE
ALEUTIANS. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY HEAD DOWNHILL LATE WEDNESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO START
AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS CLOSELY. IF LOW TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH PRECIPITATION
COULD STAY ALL SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD WOULD NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE DEEP LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MAINLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER IT WILL TRACK INTO THE GULF OR REMAIN
CLOSE THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BOTTOM LINE...WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO THIS WILL BE
CONTINUALLY RE-EVALUATED AS WE GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE LOW
WILL TRACK. THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 132 138 150 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 08