Gale Warning 75, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 170049
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 989 MB LOW 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO 325 NM NORTH OF
AMCHITKA AT 995 MB THU NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE. A DEVELOPING LOW
WILL MOVE NEAR ATKA FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT.   
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 35 KT.  
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT.  
.MON...E WIND 25 KT.   

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED JAN 16 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 15 2008

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. THEY
DO DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL WAVES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BERING SEA
LOW TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL AMOUNG THE
MODELS...HOWEVER THEIR TIMING IS VERY DIFFERENT. THIS IS NOT A HUGE
SURPRISE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A HUGE
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MOST STRIKING FEATURE WHEN LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE IS THE JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM AROUND 25N 180W INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
A STRONG LOW JUST NORTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO NORTON
SOUND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF KISKA ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN INTERESTING FEATURE
SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS A POLAR LOW THAT IS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING. THIS LOW IS DECOUPLED FROM THE JET STREAM BUT IS
STILL HOLDING TOGETHER AND MOVING STEADILY NORTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS BRINGING A LOT OF MOISTURE THAT IS OVERRIDING
THE COLD AIR THAT IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. THIS RESULTING SNOW IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SUSITNA VALLEY IS ALSO RECEIVING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW WITH THE
SNOW ADVISORY IN ZONE 145 VERIFYING NICELY. THE SHORT TERM WILD CARD
IS THE POLAR LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THE NAM HAS IT MOVING INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TOMORROW. THIS COULD PRODUCE MORE SNOWFALL IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AREA SHOULD IT TAKE THIS TRACK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THE WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICAN AND THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 150 160 165 172 179 180 351 352 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 08