Gale Warning 727, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 180128 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
425 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

AMENDED AREA 121

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...WITH COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
$$

PKZ120-181500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-181500-
RESURRECTION BAY
425 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-181500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-181500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT GUSTING 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT GUSTING 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-181500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-181500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-181500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-181500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N WIND 15 KT NORTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N WIND 15 KT NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N WIND 20 KT NORTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-181500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 181243
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
TUE NIGHT...WITH COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

$$

PKZ120-190300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-190300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-190300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-190300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-190300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-190300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT BECOMING N 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-190300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-190300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. PATCHY MORNING FOG.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-190300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST TUE NOV 18 2008

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST MON NOV 17 2008

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
FAIRLY QUIET SETUP OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. A 998 MB LOW JUST
SOUTH OF UMNAK ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO
INTENSIFY FROM THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE INTERIOR...WITH COLDER
AND DRIER NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SOME ISSUES WITH THE MODELS BEGINNING AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME RUNS OF VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BROUGHT A SPOKE
OF THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTH INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA MIDWEEK. WE ARE KEEPING THE LOW COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND KEEPING THE NORTHERN GULF DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO
THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH THE MODELS LATE IN THE WEEK
IN HOW QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY THEY BREAK DOWN THE STRONG
RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK IN THE EASTERN BERING. UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE
DOWN A BIT...WE STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH WAS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE 0Z ECMWF FROM THE 16TH...THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED
SINCE THEN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...
DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS NEAR KODIAK AND A FEW LINGERING FLURRIES
THIS MORNING OVER MAINLAND SOUTHCENTRAL. THE TWO LARGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE CLEARING TODAY AND HOW GUSTY THE
WINDS GET THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WILL DEFINITELY BE FOR CLEARING...COOLING...AND INCREASING WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE
INTERIOR ALONG WITH A STATIONARY COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. MANY AREAS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED OUT FOR GOOD...INCLUDING WHITTIER SEWARD AND
VALDEZ WHERE CHANNELED DOWNSLOPING WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR IN THE COOK INLET REGION AND THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. FOR THE COOK INLET REGION...BELIEVE THERE WILL
BE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...
LIKE SOUTHCENTRAL...THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER...CLEARER...AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STUBBORN TO CLEAR OUT. MOST AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF UMNAK ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND MERGE WITH A SEMIPERMANENT COMPLEX AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
AND GULF OF ALASKA. A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE LOW
SOUTH OF UMNAK ISLAND KICKS OUT...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AN EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH WILL BE
GRAZED BY PRECIPITATION FROM SYSTEMS TO THEIR WEST TRYING TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE BERING RIDGE BUT HAVING LITTLE SUCCESS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM...NAMELY WHETHER OR NOT THE
STRONG BERING HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN AND IF IT DOES...WHEN THAT
HAPPENS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME PRETTY DECENT SYSTEMS WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY CAN
REACH THE EASTERN BERING AND TOTALLY BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANOTHER STORY. FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY AND BEYOND
IS A BIG QUESTION WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY AT BOTH
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AT THE LEAST IT LOOKS LIKE A TREND TOWARD
AND WARMER AND WETTER WILL BEGIN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING ZONES 172 176 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY NOV 08