Gale Warning 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 012359
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 56N 175E MOVES TO 58N 167W AT 1003 MB SUN
AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN DISSIPATES NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING.
$$

PKZ150-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-021400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-021400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-021400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-021400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-021400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SW 30 KT THIS EVENING. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-021400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-021400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
150 PM AKDT FRI OCT 31 2008

.ANALYSIS/UPPER LEVELS...AT THE UPPER LEVELS WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
BEING CUT-OFF OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH UNDERNEATH IT
STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR TO WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. LOW
PRESSURE ALSO EXISTS IN THE BERING IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM A LOW WEST OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC HOLDS FIRM PROMOTING ANOTHER
CLEAR DAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84
HOURS. ONE MINOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM CROPS UP LATER
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS SOUTH OF CHIGNIK. WE ARE
GOING WITH A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE NAM WHICH MOVES THE LOW QUICKLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LOW
IN SE ALASKA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...A 994 MB LOW WELL SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE
UP ALONG THE COAST SPREADING CLOUDS BACK INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ENCOUNTERING
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE INTERIOR. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AND EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
MEANWHILE...FURTHER WEST, A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL FORM ON THE SOUTH
END OF A DECAYING FRONT NEAR CHIGNIK AND MOVE SE. RAIN WILL SKIRT
KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW IN SE ALASKA WILL
YIELD GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (I.E. GALE FORCE IN MARINE AREAS) SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

FURTHER WEST...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING AROUND SW ALASKA.
A FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE SW COAST HAS STALLED OUT AND WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REACHING INLAND. NORTHWEST
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE BERING ON THE PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SW BERING SEA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL TRANSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO ONE WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MAINLAND MEANS THAT THE
EASTERN MAINLAND WILL GET ITS FIRST REAL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN A LONG
TIME AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE WEST SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
ON THE MAINLAND WITH THAT UNSTABLE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD...WHILE WEATHER
IN THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE CALMER AS A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE
SETTLES IN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JCA/LF