Gale Warning 702, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 290027
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH SUN. A 998 MB LOW NEAR 53N 167E WILL BE ABSORBED FRI NIGHT
INTO A 973 MB LOW NEAR 46N 171E. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 49N 176W AT
965 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. N OF
56N...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

.TONIGHT...WEST WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 28 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 291241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 973 MB LOW 47N 178E WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO 47N 173W SUNDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB. 

$$

PKZ411-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 11 FT. HIGHEST WINDS 
AND SEAS S. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 14 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 20 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
S. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E TO NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST WINDS
AND SEAS S. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E TO NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-300300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT S OF
56N. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS 
S. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 300025
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 46N 178W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB.

$$

PKZ411-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 14 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S OF 56N. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST SEAS S OF 56N. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2008

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
 
$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 301259
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2008

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 46N 173W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN TO 963 MB.
$$

PKZ411-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2008

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND 
SEAS S. FREEZING SPRAY N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 TO 22 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. FREEZING SPRAY N. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 26 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
S. FREEZING SPRAY N. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS S. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 17 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS S. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS
S. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2008

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT. HIGHEST WINDS 
AND SEAS S. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-010300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2008

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E TO NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 10 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS W AND S. SNOW AND
RAIN S. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 15 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS W. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS 
W. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU NOV 27 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LARGE LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THAT IS HEADING FOR PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND ON SATURDAY QUITE WELL. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES ON SATURDAY
WITH THE SPEED THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUND. THE GFS IS
REALLY BLASTING IT THROUGH QUICKLY WHILE THE NAM HOLDS PROBABLY TOO
FAR BACK. THE UKMET SOLUTION ACTUALLY LOOKS THE BEST WITH IT HOLDING
THE LOW IN THE SOUND UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM KEEPS IT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUND EVEN LONGER. THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS
LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUND QUICKLY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER A
LITTLE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT LOW OF NOTE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE IMPROVING
WITH THE SOLUTION TO THIS BERING SEA LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS. THE GFS
IS KEEPING THE LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA INTACT FOR TOO LONG.
THE DYNAMICS SUPPORT THIS LOW BEING WASHED OUT INTO A TROUGH AS THE
UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW SO THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD IN THE BERING SEA AREAS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE IS THE 955 MB
LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AFTER BEING DOWN TO 947 MB ON THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AND QUITE STRONG AT 250 MB WITH WINDS NEARING 200 KT IN
PLACES. THIS JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ZONAL ALONG 40N AND SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER STRONG LOW
TO DEVELOP AND THEN HEAD TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.
IN SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING LOTS OF WEATHER AND
LOTS OF QUESTIONS AS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
COASTAL AREAS AND INTO THE COOK INLET AREA. KODIAK ISLAND IS GETTING
THE FIRST DOSE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF AREA AND IS REMAINING SNOW
AS COLD AIR IN THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLAND IS STILL BEING ENTRAINED
OVER THE COAST. WHEN WINDS GET SHIFTED FROM OVER THE WATER THE RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN...PROBABLY SOMETIME THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
HAS ENOUGH WARM AIR TO TURN THE SNOW IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA
INTO RAIN. SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE
COOK INLET REGION THOUGH THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE ANCHORAGE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS ALSO A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE HOMER AREA FRIDAY.

FARTHER WEST THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING IN STRONG WINDS TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSIDERATION
GIVEN AS TO WHETHER BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS OR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW
WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL NOT GET
THESE CONDITIONS. WHILE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL NOT GET DOWN TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DUTCH HARBOR SHOULD BE
WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THESE CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUND ON SATURDAY
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE
ANCHORAGE AREA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL KEEP MOVING STORMS INTO THE BERING SEA.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE
NORTH AMERICAN COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NOV 08